Uncertainty in macroeconomic policy-making: art or science?

Uncertainty in macroeconomic policy making: art or science? - Lecture by Mervyn King

Should Macroeconomic Policy Makers Consider Parameter Covariances?

Many macroeconomic policy exercises consider the mean values of parameter estimates but do not use the variances and covariances. One can argue that the uncertainty of these parameter estimates is sufficiently small that it can safely be ignored. Or one can take the position that this kind of uncertainty cannot be avoided no matter what one does. Thus it is just as well to ignore it while makin...

The Effect of Uncertainty of Macroeconomic Indicators on Tehran Stock Exchange Return With an Approach of the TVP-SV Model

One of the most important duties of financial economy is modeling and forecasting the volatilities of price of risky assets. From analysts and policy makers’ view, price volatility is a key variable contributing to perception of market volatilities. Therefore, analysts need to have an appropriate of forecast of price volatility as a necessary input to perform duties such as risk management, por...

Uncertainty and fiscal policy in a monetary union: Why does monetary policy transmission matter? ¬リニ

a r t i c l e i n f o In this paper, we develop a monetary-fiscal game in a monetary union with uncertainty due to imperfect transparency about the central bank's preferences. The objective is to investigate the macroeconomic effects of this uncertainty by explicitly taking into account the role of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. We first consider the case of symmetric monetary tran...

Environmental planning and management of urban natural landscapes

Advantages of urbanization such as access to clean water, health, and overall easier life in cities, as well as the disadvantages or its negative effects on environment cannot be ignored. Today, there are numerous environmental problems due to the reduction in ecologically valuable places within urban areas. Bringing nature to the cities appears to be essential to enhance urban environment and ...